A title race in Italy
Napoli, Inter, and Atalanta... who will prevail?
The Premier League title race might already be over, but it’s only just rounding the corner in Italy. Serie A has had a different champion for five seasons running, with Inter Milan attempting to be the first repeat winners since Juventus back in 2020. It’s not the self-described best league in the world yet no other top-5 league can promote the kind of parity that Italian soccer has. Sure, most of that is due to the Covid-19 pandemic torpedoing the economy and, of course, all the other general corruption rife in the land of pizza, pasta, and corruption. That doesn’t make it any less entertaining to follow along.
With 11 matches to go, Inter, Napoli, and Atalanta are all within three points of each other: Inter at 58 (+35 goal differential), Napoli at 57 (+21 GD), and Atalanta at 55 (+33 GD). Apologies to Juventus (49 points) who sorely needed to turn even just two of its 13 draws into wins to be included in the title race here. For now, it’s the two oldest teams in Italy–Inter’s and Napoli’s squad average age hovering around 30–and one mercurial hipster favorite–I’ll never forget you Josip Iličić–vying for the Scudetto!
Simone Inzaghi’s Inter traveled down south to take on Antonio Conte’s Napoli this Saturday, a matchup featuring some of the most Italian names you’ll see outside of an Elena Ferrante novel; Napoli’s Alessandro Buongiorno takes the tiramisu. The match ended in a 1-1 draw, the perfect result for the chasing Atalanta following its own frustrating nil-nil draw against Venezia earlier in the day.
No, that wasn’t the Pittsburgh Steelers’ newest Milanese expansion team facing off against the powder blue of the Azzurri, although the squad did put in a defensive shift that’d make Mike Tomlin proud. That’s just Inter’s third kit, maybe Borussia Dortmund had some backstock and offered a nice deal on unworn jerseys.
While the color combination wasn’t pleasing on the eyes, the soccer thankfully was. As England has gotten further obsessed with control, possession passing, and centre backs at every defensive position–thanks be to Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta–Italy offers stylistic diversity in abundance. It’s not only back three formations, even if both squads lined up as such.
Inzaghi’s Inter would be at the forefront of this, and that was on display throughout the first half. Inzaghi typically lines his players up in a 3-5-2 formation with wingbacks heavily involved in chance creation and two strikers up top playing off each other. The structure is fluid, needing the wingbacks to be capable in defense after their marauding runs into the opponent’s penalty box. Increasingly, Inter’s midblock defense–packing the midfield and making the match be played out anywhere but near the final third–is incredibly hard to break down, and Inter rode that fortitude to only one goal given up in eight Champions League matches.
I’m not sure if Inter’s Alessandro Bastoni is the best centre back in the world, but he might be the most breathtaking. Situated as the left centre back in the back three, Bastoni has all the freedom in the world to control the match. His fbref page looks more like that of a midfielder: above 90th percentile for assists, expected assisted goals, shot-creating actions, passes attempted, progressive passes, progressive carries, and progressive passes received. Has Inzaghi built the plane out of Bastoni?
And one might ask, that seems nice and all, but aren’t those all attacking statistics for somebody whose primary responsibility is defending? Bastoni more than holds his own in his more traditional duties, showcasing impeccable timing on last-ditch tackles–as he did twice here to save shots on goal–and his six-foot-three frame able to hold off physical strikers.
It was Bastoni’s lofted pass to wingback Federico Dimarco, Inter’s bread and olive oil, that eventually set up a free kick right outside of Napoli’s box. Dimarco–second place for the on-pitch most Italian name–put Inter in the lead with his left foot. Whipped in around the wall and smashed into the top corner, keeper Alex Meret could only watch in despair (and amazement).
But Inter decided to close up shop, not realizing that, uhh, it’s not closing time yet, sirs. Marcus Thuram never looked healthy, coming off in the 65th minute, and other stars Lautaro Martínez and Nicolò Barella remained anonymous throughout. A Napolitano onslaught against Inter’s vaunted defense ensued.
Napoli’s attack is still reeling from the unnecessary transfer of budding star Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to PSG and, as the second half wore on, it felt like Napoli didn’t have quite the final ball needed to tie the match. Romelu Lukaku has been dreadful since the calendar flipped to February, not scoring a goal that entire month as Napoli finished with three draws and one loss. The speedy David Neres was meant to replace Khvicha’s attacking spark, but he’s been out since mid-February, and Giacomo Raspadori doesn’t appear to be all that good (three goals in 16 matches). Manchester United’s old favorite, the Scottish midfielder Scott McTominay, is second in the club for goals scored with six. His goalscoring at United papered over some of that club’s offensive ineptitude, and it might be doing the same in Italy. Either way, it’s not sustainable.
Then, the shortest player on the pitch, the five-foot-seven Stanislav Lobotka, broke through Inter’s defense with a slaloming run before playing a superb pass to the substitute Philip Billing. Keeper Josep Martínez stopped him once but not twice, Billing tying the affair with his first goal in only his second match for Napoli. The points shared.
Questions will be asked of Inter for choosing to sit back and withstand 45 minutes of pressure on a one-goal lead. Five more minutes of lockdown, low-block defense and Inzaghi’s a genius. Instead, what should’ve been a four-point lead remains a one-point lead. The forced substitutions of Dimarco, Bastoni, and Hakan Çalhanoğlu cost Inter the game and could do further damage to their goals for the season depending on the severity of the injuries. Inter thrive off its wingbacks playing integral roles attacking and defending, and Bastoni is as irreplaceable as they come in a wide centre back position he’s completely made his own.
Napoli, on the other side, was rapturous, even if they could’ve cut the celebrations short to try and grab all three points. Conte’s men should take note of their second-half dominance: 1.27 xG to Inter’s 0.00 accrued and 68% possession. Inter didn’t take a single shot after halftime; that’s the kind of defensive structure and attacking impetus Napoli will need to ride out the rest of the season to compete with an arguably deeper and more experienced team. Lukaku finding the net again will help.
Atalanta will certainly take that scoreline after failing to turn its 2.38 expected goals into anything more than one point against relegation candidates Venezia. Under Gian Piero Gasperini, Atalanta have simply been one of Europe’s most delectable and free-flowing attacks. The aforementioned Iličić, Papu Gómez, Luis Muriel, Duván Zapata, and more have experienced careers years in Bergamo, to the point that other clubs are now afraid to sign Atalanta players away from Gasperini and place them in different, less viable settings. Call it Heat Culture for European football, taking diamonds in the rough and making them gems like nowhere else can, without all the arrogance and pearl-clutching of Pat Riley’s Miami Heat. Ok with some of the arrogance.
Lately it’s been the work of Ademola Lookman, Mateo Retegui, and Charles De Ketelaere skyrocketing the club up the table, not even a year removed from its first European title (2024 Europa League Championship). Retegui has an absurd 21 goals in 25 matches, scoring about eight goals more than the underlying numbers would suggest. Lookman has 12 of his own, already a career high, and De Ketelaere is second in Serie A with 11 big chances created. The names may change from season to season, but damn if Gasperini doesn’t know how to churn goals out of any of them.
Atalanta don’t have the might of an Inter, or even a Napoli, but the Scudetto is within reach for the tiny squad from Bergamo. With matches against Juventus and Inter the next two weeks, we’ll know even more about where the title race stands in Italy. Buon appetito!