The only race left?
8 clubs vie for 3 spots in *drumroll* The Champions!
With most clubs having 11 matches left before the end of the season, it’s rather disappointing that both the title race and the race to avoid relegation are more or less over. No guards of honor yet–this is the chaos sport of soccer after all–but it’s increasingly difficult to imagine an injured and depleted Arsenal overcoming Mo Salah, Liverpool, and begrudgingly checks notes a 13-point deficit (“with a game in hand” cry the most delusional Gooners). Ipswich and Leicester are only five points back of Wolves (sorry, 20th-placed Southampton, you’re not getting more than a parenthetical). Still, five points seems insurmountable looking at the goal differential between the three clubs: Wolves at a sad -19 over the season while Ipswich and Leicester are both behind 30 goals.
That leaves the race for European spots, primarily the Champions League. It’s looking like the Premier League will get five clubs in the competition next season with spots three through five in the table still up for grabs; 2nd-placed Arsenal couldn’t score on an open net right now but have a decent cushion of six points from third. Somehow, Manchester United and happily checks notes Tottenham aren’t in this discussion. For the rest, it’s a combination of clubs that have never been in Europe, haven’t been in Europe for a long time, and some of the world’s most monied that really shouldn’t be here. But they are. Eight clubs, from third to tenth, separated by just six points!
BRIGHTON vs. BOURNEMOUTH (2-1)
Brighton: 8th, 43 points (+5 goal differential)
Bournemouth: 7th, 43 points (+13 GD)
Let’s start with what would be two of the more original clubs to see play in the Champions League: Brighton and Bournemouth, who played out a thrilling 2-1 win in the Seagulls’ favor this week.
Twas a game for the neutrals, as they say, with plenty of exciting young prospects on both sides of the pitch, trendy, non-English managers on the sidelines, and, of course, that guy Danny Welbeck.
Brighton took the early lead thanks to Joao Pedro and Diego Gomez. Gomez is the latest of Brighton’s WTF midfield prospects, and he shone in his first start for the club since coming over from Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami in December. Particularly in the first half, Gomez looked to pass forward every time he got the ball, showcasing some nifty direct passing (eight passes into the final third) and much needed press resistance. His incisive ball to Pedro broke through Bournemouth’s backline and ultimately put keeper Kepa in no man’s land. Penalty to Brighton, and a 1-0 lead was borne.
Bournemouth got back into the match with a wonder goal by Justin Kluivert. Kluivert is a fun watch, scoring only bangers or penalties (six penalty goals), but it’s his teammates that have other clubs around Europe salivating. Nineteen-year-old Dean Huijsen, standing at six-foot-five, has been rock solid at centre back since coming over from Roma last summer, ratcheting up 21 appearances in the most difficult league in the world. Left back Milos Kerkez, only twenty-one himself, flies up and down the pitch, and Dango Outtara has had a mini-breakout as a makeshift striker with career highs in goals (seven) and assists (four) thus far. The shifty, left-footed man from Burkina Faso is exhilarating, especially when paired with another breakout, Antoine Semenyo (seven goals and four assists of his own). Champions League or not, all of these players could leave in the summer. For now, Andoni Iraola has them playing like a club deserving of 4th–and by consequence, CL–with the 4th-best expected goals difference per 90 minutes in the PL (+0.47).
Yet Brighton recaptured the lead courtesy of another young prospect, Georginio Rutter, and that guy Welbz. Rutter’s first season for the Seagulls has been slow to start, but he’s up to eight goal involvements in 2025 and his smooth turn and run opened up Welbeck for a tidy finish to take all three points at home.
The Seagulls might have the best collection of young talent in the league. Rutter, Gomez, and Pedro (six goals and six assists in the PL) are sparkling prospects, but the two that continually keep my eye are Yankuba Minteh and Carlos Baleba. Minteh is complete and total pandemonium, a lively roadrunner who meeps meeps past… everyone? Yes, everyone. He can be a little all over the place, but he’s only 20 and in his first full season in a top-5 league. If he begins to put it together as he ages, we might be witnessing a superstar in action.
Baleba plays further back in the midfield and, while not quite reaching the levels of Moises Caicedo who he replaced, it’s not hard to picture him in a Champions League match. Quick, strong, willing to take chances, and already so aware of how to use his body against grown men–shocker Baleba is also only 21–the only question left could be which jersey he’s wearing this time next season.
Brighton’s best ever finish in the PL was two seasons ago (sixth with Europa League qualification) under a guy you hate to hand it to but you kind of have to hand it to him, Roberto De Zerbi. The Champions League, though, would be even more special, and Brighton still have that type of manager, the American-born German (yikes!) Fabian Hurzeler, to see them through. Bournemouth have never played in Europe, and it’d be awesome to watch a club of Real Madrid’s stature go to the smallest stadium in the PL. That’s what it’s all about!
ASTON VILLA
10th, 42 points (w/ a game in hand) (-5 GD)
Oh, honey. Oh, Aston Villa. Oh, Unai Emery. *winds up the machine* That’s a paddling!
Villa actually finished higher in this year’s Champions League group stage (eighth) than it currently sits in the Premier League (tenth). Still, the Villains are well within striking distance, just four points out of fifth, even if it might not feel like it after matches like this week’s against Crystal Palace.
Aston Villa are experiencing life similar to what the Liverpool’s and Arsenal’s of the world go through. Maintaining a healthy, competitive squad while trying to compete in the PL, the CL, and even the various cups in England is incredibly challenging, and cascading injuries haven’t helped. This Villa squad is a lot better with Pau Torres starting, Ross Barkley available, and the young midfielders Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara around.
That takes us to Tuesday’s match against Palace, in which Villa were summarily crushed. The 4-1 scoreline doesn’t even flatter Palace all that much. In fact, Villa were fortunate to even get a goal, with Palace totaling 4.31 expected goals to Villa’s 0.38.
If I was a betting man, I would steer clear of Emery’s Villa. An on-loan Marcus Rashford has provided some impetus off the bench, although less so than also on-loan Marco Asensio (two goals in four matches), but recent signing Donyell Malen never even left the bench and the ever-present keeper Emiliano Martinez was oddly subbed off at halftime. Emery now probably needs Rashford and Asensio to pop for some of Villa’s loftier goals to be accomplished this season. A relatively easy draw in the CL Round of 16 against Club Brugge is some comfort.
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa (4-1)
FULHAM
9th, 42 points (+4 GD)
Fulham are right where they should be. Well, actually, Fulham could be a little higher in the table even, something like seventh. The Cottagers sport the 7th-best xGD/90 in the league (+0.27), a good bit ahead of fellow challengers like Brighton (+0.06), Forest (+0.06), Aston Villa (+0.02), and Manchester United (-0.19). Ok, United aren’t challenging anything, except the patience of its fans!
Under Marco Silva in his fourth season in charge, Fulham are just an all-around solid squad replete with PL-level players. Bernd Leno is still a mostly plus shot-stopping keeper even if the other areas of his game leave some to be desired. Raul Jimenez and Rodrigo Muniz alternate at the No. 9 spot, totaling 14 goals and four assists between them. Adama Traore never quite put it all together–once upon a time he had the physicality and speed to be a superstar–but he’s rounded into a capable winger. And the returning Joachim Anderson in defense has been immense, primarily for his passing ability from the back.
There isn’t much exciting or newfound that Silva’s players are doing. They’re well-coached and now well-positioned for their first entry to Europe since losing the Europa League final back in 2010.
Wolves vs. Fulham (1-2)
CHELSEA
5th, 46 points (+16 GD)
Sorry, Chelsea, you can’t play Southampton every week. Southampton are as good of a slump buster as any in the league, Chelsea putting four goals past them following three losses in its last four. That’ll do, pig, that’ll do.
The beatdown didn’t quite alleviate one of Chelsea’s growing concerns, however: the waning level of transcendent star Cole Palmer. Palmer missed an easy one in this match and has cut an increasingly exhausted figure as the season continues. Of course, he played the full ninety here. Palmer has 14 goals and six assists on the year but actually doesn’t have a goal involvement in over a month. It’s hard to rest him, as the entire offense goes through him, but the Blues might not have much of a choice with matches piling up in the final months. There’s a Europa Conference title to win!
Nico Jackson and Noni Madueke are the two other impressive attackers, but both are out until April. Jadon Sancho, Christopher Nkunku, and Pedro Neto haven’t stepped up in the slightest (8 goals and 10 assists between the three of them), and a shaky defense seemingly dependent on the health of Wesley Fofana–an oft-injured centre back who returned to the bench for the first time since December 1st–is not the most stable of grounds to platform a CL contender.
The Blues have the talent of a club that should make the top four or five in the PL. Enzo Maresca appears more bald fraud than a true Pep disciple like Mikel Arteta, too, and the Caicedo-Enzo Fernandez midfield pairing just never quite makes sense. There were protests before and during the match, fans wanting a return of their Russian oligarch sugar daddy. Just another day in Chelsea world.
Chelsea vs. Southampton (4-0)
NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3rd, 48 points (+11 GD)
Man, Raheem Sterling must be more washed than a college kid’s clothes returning to campus after a weekend at home. Erm, sorry. Anyway, let’s discuss Forest.
Forest essentially had the match it always does against Arsenal, just without Chris Wood finding the back of the net. Ceding the possession battle (35% to Arsenal’s 65%) in support of a fierce counter-attacking unit and dogged defensive setup, the Trees totaled six shots, two on target, and a low 0.40 expected goals. Callum Hudson-Odoi was a constant threat with very little end product, his best move resulting in a Riccardo Calafiori yellow card in just the third minute. Anthony Elanga on the other side was less impactful.
But the defense is where Forest’s bread is buttered: one shot on target given up the entire match. Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic are surely the best centre back pairing outside the big 6, and one could even argue as high as third-best in the league. With Ola Aina and Neco Williams at outside back and keeper Matz Sels leading the league with 11 clean sheets, Forest have the third-lowest goals scored against in the PL.
What’s elevated an outstanding, well-drilled defense to the top of the CL race with 11 matchweeks left is a lot of hot finishing from one Chris Wood. Wood only accumulated 0.16 xG on one shot against Arsenal, but low shot volume and ambitious attempts haven’t stopped him from totaling a career-best 18 goals through 27 matches. He’s got about eight more goals than one would expect from his underlying numbers. Wood’s been on a heater for a good bit over a season and half now, aging like a fine wine at 33 years old.
Crucially, Forest have banked more points than all but the two clubs ahead of them; it’s much easier to lead the pack than to chase it this late in the season. Thanks to the aforementioned finishing run of Wood, the Trees are not midtable, which is more their level. If Wood can keep up the shooting, Forest will find itself in Europe for the first time since 1995.
Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal (0-0)
MANCHESTER CITY
4th, 47 points (+16 GD)
Manchester City’s terrible, horrible, no good, very bad season has found the club in… fourth with 11 matches to go. Make no mistake, this is an extremely unsatisfying season for City, staining a front office that thus far had mostly been spotless and, in turn, causing the worst managerial stretch of Pep Guardiola’s sterling career. And yet third place and Champions League is right there for the taking.
City’s 1-0 win over Tottenham was more of the same, dominant periods of play that don’t necessarily result in big wins or advantages. Spurs even had a chance to tie it up with the last kick of the match. Just a year ago, this match might’ve ended with three or four goals, but City don’t have the players required to dial up the pressure anymore.
Erling Haaland did return in this one, scoring his customary goal, and the Citizens will need him for the run-in. Omar Marmoush, Jeremy Doku, Savinho, and Phil Foden have all had their moments in blue throughout the season, but none of them have had the impact of a Riyad Mahrez, Raheem Sterling, or Leroy Sane of title-winning seasons past. The Rodri injury still reverberates all around the pitch.
I hate to say it, but City should be finishing third when the season closes. A summer clearout of a metric fuckton of players–Doku, Bernardo Silva, Jack Grealish, Kevin de Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan, Ederson, John Stones–awaits. Enjoy this brief downturn while you can, before the club restocks itself like only it and PSG can: buy the best players for a lot of money and pay them a lot of money.
Tottenham vs. Man City (0-1)
NEWCASTLE
6th, 44 points (+8 GD)
BREAKING NEWS: Newcastle United woeful, shameful, despicable without Alexander Isak.
Yes, I know, it’s hard to keep up with the news these days, but Newcastle are just not very good without its star striker leading the line. Isak was a late scratch due to a groin injury, and the ensuing 2-0 defeat to Liverpool summed up his squad rather well. The Magpies can ill afford missing Isak for an extended period of time: three total shots, none on target, for a putrid 0.23 expected goals. Newcastle certainly built the entire plane out of Isak.
Much like Salah does everything for Liverpool–surrounded by ultra-talented players of course–Isak makes everything vibe for Newcastle. Nineteen goals and five assists in the PL, Isak is splendid to watch. At six-foot-four, he practically glides around the pitch, showcasing deft touches, creative passing, and any kind of goal you could ask for.
It remains to be seen how long Isak will be out, but Newcastle’s European ambitions begin and end with his health. Sure, the efforts of Bruno Guimaraes, Anthony Gordon, Lewis Hall, and Fabian Schar will always make Newcastle a competent side, one that’s exceedingly physical and onerous to break down. Still, Liverpool never even seemed to leave the driveway and idled to a two-goal win.
Liverpool vs. Newcastle (2-0)